What Drives the Agricultural Growth in Azerbaijan? Insights from Autometrics with Super Saturation

The development of the agricultural sector is essential for any economy, including Azerbaijan, largest economy in South Caucasus, as it plays an important role food security, rural development, and environmental protection. For oil-dependent also diversification non-oil sector. this reason, Azerbaijani government has adopted several programs materialized massive investments to promote growth. This study examines production factors using annual time series data period 1995-2017. Econometric analysis, mainly Autometrics - a cutting edge machine learning modeling algorithm- with super saturation, Growth Accounting lead us conclude that: (i) land, labor, capital have statistically significant positive long-run impacts on agriculture output; (ii) growth contributions land formation slowed down sharply, while total factor productivity (TFP) labor increased 2009-2017 compared pre-2009 period; (iii) period, sector's was hugely contributed by followed TFP, land; (iv) TFP growth, contribution negative. results are robust different econometric methods specifications. Overall, policymakers recommended consider that value-added other key indicators grown less given one should expect more former numerous were materialized. They may quite small negative, respectively. Lastly, policies leading be supported.